Convective outlook(AC) AC 00-45H chap 5

5.6.1 Convective Outlooks (AC).

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues narrative and graphical Convective outlooks to provide the CONUS NWS WFOs, the public, the media, and emergency managers with the potential for severe (tornado, wind gusts 50 kts or greater, or hail 1 in in diameter or greater) and non-severe (general) convection and specific severe weather threats during the following 8 days. The Convective Outlook defines areas of marginal risk (MRGL), slight risk (SLGT), enhanced risk (ENH), moderate risk (MDT), or high risk (HIGH) of severe weather based on a percentage probability, which varies for time periods from 1 day to 3 days, and then two probabilistic thresholds for Days 4 through 8. The day 1, day 2, and day 3 Convective Outlooks also depict areas of general thunderstorms (TSTMS). The outlooks in graphical (see Figure 5-22, Day 1 Categorical Convective Outlook Graphic Example) and text formats are available on the SPC Web site.